Space Weather Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Overall Threat Level

HIGH

Confidence Level

MODIMODERATE

Key Findings

Geomagnetic activity at G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 17 Jan due to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influence
Solar activity low with M-class flares likely, posing R1-R2 radio blackout risks
RTK GNSS performance expected to degrade with initialization delays >3 min and accuracy errors >5 cm

Current Space Weather Conditions

Solar Activity

MODERATE

Parameter	Value
Solar Flux (10.7cm)	130 sfu
Active Regions	9 regions, including complex beta-gamma-delta Region 4341 with high flare potential
Flare Probability	M-class 55%, X-class 10% for 17-18 Jan

Geomagnetic Activity

STORM

Parameter	Value
Kp Index	Current: 5.33 (G1), Forecast: 5.33-4.67 (G1) for 17 Jan
Planetary A Index	Current: 25, Forecast: 25-18 for 17-18 Jan

Space Weather Storms

Storm Type	Current Status	Forecast
Geomagnetic Storms	G1 (Minor) storm conditions ongoing on 17 Jan, chance for G2 (Moderate) on 18 Jan	-
Solar Radiation Storms	No significant radiation storms expected (S1 probability 1%)	-
Radio Blackouts	R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts likely (55% probability) due to M-class flare activity	-

Geomagnetic Activity Trends - Last 7 Days

Hp30 and ap30 geomagnetic activity indices for the last 7 days

Graph Statistics

Parameter	Value
Data Points	337
Period	2026-02-09 23:30 UTC to 2026-02-16 23:30 UTC
Max Hp30	6.67
Max ap30	111 nT

Activity Levels

Quiet: Hp30 ≤ 2.5, ap30 ≤ 7 nT

Unsettled: Hp30 2.5-4.0, ap30 7-15 nT

Active: Hp30 4.0-6.0, ap30 15-30 nT

Storm: Hp30 ≥ 6.0, ap30 ≥ 30 nT

Data Source: GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - Geomagnetic Observatory Niemegk
Note: Hp30 and ap30 indices provide high-resolution (30-minute) measurements of geomagnetic activity.

Solar F10.7 Flux - Last 30 Days

Graph Statistics

Parameter	Value
Data Points	30
Period	2026-01-18 20:00 UTC to 2026-02-16 20:00 UTC
Current F10.7	118.0 sfu
Max F10.7	194.0 sfu
Mean F10.7	153.3 sfu

Activity Levels

Very Low: 60-80 sfu

Low: 80-120 sfu

Moderate: 120-160 sfu

High: 160-200 sfu

Very High: >200 sfu

Data Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
Note: F10.7 cm solar flux is a key indicator of solar activity and ionospheric conditions affecting surveying GNSS accuracy.

Surveying Operations Impact Assessment

Positioning Accuracy

HIGH Risk

Affected Regions: Global, especially mid to high latitudes, Polar regions most severely impacted

Expected Impact: Ionospheric disturbances from G1 storm causing increased multipath and phase ambiguities

Accuracy Degradation: 5-10 cm horizontal, 10-15 cm vertical

RTK GNSS Performance

HIGH impact

Initialization Time: >3 minutes, with potential for 5+ minute delays during peak storm activity

Network RTK Stability: Reduced stability; correction network latency may increase, requiring more frequent base station updates

Survey Operations

Recommended Methods:

static
rapid static
post-processed kinematic

Session Duration: Increase static session times by 50-100%; RTK observation periods should be extended to 5+ minutes per point

Quality Control:

Increase baseline redundancy
Use ionospheric correction models
Perform frequent check shots
Post-process all critical work

Surveying Operations Recommendations

Immediate Actions

Postpone high-precision RTK surveys requiring <2 cm accuracy
Implement extended observation protocols for all GNSS work
Monitor real-time Kp index and space weather alerts during operations

Survey Planning

Schedule critical RTK work for 19 Jan when conditions expected to improve
Use static methods for control network densification
Plan for 25-50% longer field time for GNSS surveys

Equipment Considerations

Enable dual-frequency processing if available
Use choke ring antennas to mitigate multipath
Increase elevation mask to 15° to reduce low-elevation noise

Field Crew Guidance

Verify fixed solutions with independent checks
Document atmospheric conditions and time of day for each observation
Be prepared for frequent re-initialization of RTK systems

Risk Timeline

Next 24 Hours

HIGH Risk

Continued G1 geomagnetic storm conditions through 17 Jan
Peak Kp values 5-6 expected during daylight hours
M-class flare activity possible

Next 3 Days

MODERATE Risk

Geomagnetic activity decreasing to unsettled-active levels on 18-19 Jan
Solar flare activity continuing with R1-R2 blackout risk
RTK conditions improving but still suboptimal

Extended Outlook

LOW Risk

No items specified