Executive Summary
Overall Threat Level
MODERATEConfidence Level
MODERATEKey Findings
- Geomagnetic activity unsettled with Kp up to 3-4, below storm levels
- Solar activity low with minimal flare risk (15% M-class)
- Ionospheric disturbances may moderately degrade GNSS accuracy, especially at high latitudes
Current Space Weather Conditions
Solar Activity
LOW| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Solar Flux (10.7cm) | 115 sfu |
| Active Regions | 7 regions with mostly simple magnetic types (alpha/beta) |
| Flare Probability | 15% for M-class, 1% for X-class |
Geomagnetic Activity
UNSETTLED| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Kp Index | current Kp ~3, forecast range 1-3 over next 3 days |
| Planetary A Index | current A=10, forecast 5-10 over next 3 days |
Space Weather Storms
| Storm Type | Current Status | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Geomagnetic Storms | No active storms; G1 occurred on Dec 18, quiet to unsettled forecasted | - |
| Solar Radiation Storms | Below S1 thresholds, no storms expected (1% probability) | - |
| Radio Blackouts | Slight chance for R1-R2 events (15% probability), no current blackouts | - |
Geomagnetic Activity Trends - Last 7 Days
Graph Statistics
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Data Points | 337 |
| Period | 2025-12-12 23:30 UTC to 2025-12-19 23:30 UTC |
| Max Hp30 | 5.67 |
| Max ap30 | 67 nT |
Activity Levels
Data Source: GFZ Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - Geomagnetic Observatory Niemegk
Note: Hp30 and ap30 indices provide high-resolution (30-minute) measurements of geomagnetic activity.
Solar F10.7 Flux - Last 30 Days
Graph Statistics
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Data Points | 30 |
| Period | 2025-11-19 20:00 UTC to 2025-12-18 20:00 UTC |
| Current F10.7 | 116.0 sfu |
| Max F10.7 | 220.0 sfu |
| Mean F10.7 | 150.3 sfu |
Activity Levels
Data Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
Note: F10.7 cm solar flux is a key indicator of solar activity and ionospheric conditions affecting surveying GNSS accuracy.
Surveying Operations Impact Assessment
Positioning Accuracy
MODERATE RiskAffected Regions: Global, Higher impact at high latitudes
Expected Impact: Ionospheric delays and scintillation may introduce errors in GNSS signal propagation, reducing precision
Accuracy Degradation: 1-3 centimeters expected
RTK GNSS Performance
MODERATE impactInitialization Time: Possible delays of 5-10 minutes due to increased ionospheric variability
Network RTK Stability: Moderately stable; correction networks may experience intermittent latency or errors
Survey Operations
Recommended Methods:
- static
- network_rtk
Session Duration: Increase static session times by 20-30% to mitigate noise
Quality Control:
- Perform additional baseline redundancy checks
- Use dual-frequency GNSS data for ionospheric correction
Surveying Operations Recommendations
Immediate Actions
- Monitor NOAA SWPC space weather alerts for updates
- Verify GNSS receiver settings are optimized for ionospheric correction (e.g., enable dual-frequency)
- Schedule high-precision surveys during local daytime when ionospheric conditions are more stable
Survey Planning
- Avoid critical, high-accuracy surveys during unsettled geomagnetic periods (Kp >3)
- Prefer post-processing kinematic (PPK) methods for flexibility in data correction
Equipment Considerations
- Use dual-frequency GNSS receivers to minimize ionospheric errors
- Ensure antenna positioning is optimized to reduce multipath effects
Field Crew Guidance
- Conduct frequent data quality checks during surveys, especially for RTK initialization
- Have backup survey methods (e.g., total station) ready in case of GNSS degradation
Risk Timeline
Next 24 Hours
- Continued unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible active periods
- Low solar activity with slight flare risk
Next 3 Days
- Geomagnetic conditions expected to quiet to quiet levels by Dec 21
- Minimal solar flare activity forecasted
Extended Outlook
- No items specified